Need Some Input....

[mobdog69]

I am looking at a site to build a large EE, 120ft 25+ vacs, I am not sure if the Manufactures proforma is accurate. Does anyone have info on this ? I have a large piece of property 1.4 acres. Great visibility, pretty good dems 65,000 3mile pop, 45,000 car count in front of a Wal-Mart, light winter some snow. No EE within 20 miles. There are 1 full serve and 1 self/EBA, they are within 2-3 miles with a different traffic pattern. Proforma states 7,000 cpm first year to 11,000 cpm 5th year. Need some input.......

 

[MEP001]

I am not sure if the Manufactures proforma is accurate.

It's probably not. Remember they're selling you equipment.

 

[my2cents]

45,000 cars is great, but how fast are they moving? Is the traffic basically morning and evening or is it constant throughout the day?, Are there traffic lights near the carwash site, are there fast food restaurants near by? is there a major mall near by? Is it close to roof tops? How is ingress and egress?

You have some good characteristics and a wash with that much traffic with the right conditions can wash well over 100k per year. I have also seen some high traffic counts wash below 80k because it is tough to enter and exit or the site is on the wrong side of the street or wrong side of the light.

If you have constant traffic, good counts on weekends and are near rooftops and a speed limit less than 45mph, it sounds pretty good

 

[mobdog69]

It's a bit of a commuter Rd. The D.O.T has the number at 45,000 in a 24hr, and it natturally gets heaver during the morning and eve. There are some pretty good roof tops, 5000+ pop within a 1 mile and 65,000 within a three. The site is near a light, the drawback is you can not make a left into the site when heading north bound on the main road. You have to make a left at the light before veiw of the site. It's an easy in and out heading south on the main Rd. It has a great draw, being directly in front of a new Wal- Mart.

 

[my2cents]

I would base the proforma on 27,000 cars not 45,000. You are only getting half the count plus whoever knows you are there going the other way. If the numbers work at 27,000, then go for it. Its much better to be conservative than to bet the ranch on that car count. Everything else sounds good-it seems that you have people.

 

[mobdog69]

I agree, the car count can not be used due to the egress. I was thinking the same thing, cut it in half. The site is good, I just don't think it will produce the numbers I need for that kind of investment. Scary dems, alot of the cars in the area don't have much paint on them.

 

[Waxman]

I bet seasoned operators would walk away from a site w/poor egress.

Demographics are important, too.

Don't mistake a mfg.'s pro formas for due diligence. That may be a costly mistake for you.

You can always start conservative and plan in some upgrades in case you do/don't meet projections.

If it were a truly great site, why wouldn't a carwasher w/experience already have built there?

Not trying to be a wet blanket, but you and the bank need the answers to these and more questions before you proceed.

 

[mobdog69]

There are a few operators looking at the site. I owned a full serve for a few years, just never a EE. I think the site is still ok, with that being said I think the egress is a real problem. I also feel for the amount of money it will take to buy and build, the site is questionable. I have seen simalar sites do 6,000 cpm and less, when the proforma was coming up with 10,000 or more.

 

[Waxman]

For my wash, I created 3 sets of projections within the business plan financials section: best case, worst case and hopeful average.

See if you can turn the nut with the worst-case scenario before you plunk your money down.

 

[Ghetto Wash]

I'm confused. In one place you say that household income is $150,000 and another you say that the demigraphics are scary (few cars with paint). Are you looking at two different sites?