Weather Rating For Sales Reports

[Buzzie8]

I want to try and implement some type of weather rating for my sales reporting. It will give me some idea on correlating my sales to the weather conditions. I want to rate each day on a 1 to 5 scale then put my sales for the day next to it. Here is the first scale I just developed:
Weather Rating For Wash
5 - Best Day Possible Sunny After Snow And Salt
4 - Good Day Sunny After Rain Or Other Weather
3 - Average Day Some Sun No Precipitation
2 - Below Average Weather - Cloudy, Some Precipitation, But Some Sun
1 - Rain Out

If you have one you've been using or have any ideas I am all ears.
Buzz
Go Steelers!

 

[dogwasher]

I like this idea!

I'm thinking my report would show A LOT of #1 and #2 !!

 

[washme1]

I've considered doing that but haven't. Just a thought. If you're going to try and come up with some kind of average score for the year, month or week you may want to use a multiplier factor for weekend days.

 

[Buzzie8]

I've considered doing that but haven't. Just a thought. If you're going to try and come up with some kind of average score for the year, month or week you may want to use a multiplier factor for weekend days.

That's some good insight. I knew I should've paid attention in the statistical analysis class in college!

 

[JustClean]

I've started doing it on a weekly (7 day) basis about 6 months ago. My rating is from 1-7. The higher the score the nicer each day of the week was. I am just about to give it up as more or less the chart is equivalant to the turnover. I don't know what benefit I can get out of this. Maybe someone can enlighten me. Until then: why bother. Time might be better spend doing some advertising or maintenance.

 

[rph9168]

I know a very successful car wash owner in Pennsylvania that has been doing this for over 20 years. He also includes temps I think.

 

[soapy]

If you look at my blog on this site I give a detailed exapmple of how I have been doing this for years.

 

[bigleo48]

Buzzie,

So for me, weather is everything (as I imagine it is for most of you guys). So a good Saturday vs a bad one would be weather related unless other variables come to play (equipment breakdown, parade blocking access, power outage, etc). So I can just look at a daily, weekly or monthly report and tell you in general terms what the weather must have been like to get those numbers. So my question is, why bother? It's just going to tell you specifically what the weather was, but the numbers are going to tell you generally what they are. So in the end you know either way.

If you just want to make sure it is weather and not something else, then monitor your competitors. Get a portable DVR or a laptop with external cam or a time interval camera and leave it for the day in your car parked with a good view of their wash. Then you'll know for sure its not competitive in nature.

Big

 

[ted mcmeekin]

I know there are companies that sell weather insurance to weather sensitive business--farming, ski resorts, etc. They use very sophisticated angorithims on many years of past weather. I think that works if you have to "bet the farm" on a crop but don't see weather so catastrophic as to bankrupt a car wash for a single season. I am interested in your results.

Thanks,
TedI know there are companies that sell weather insurance to weather sensitive business--farming, ski resorts, etc. They use very sophisticated angorithims on many years of past weather. I think that works if you have to "bet the farm" on a crop but don't see weather so catastrophic as to bankrupt a car wash for a single season. I am interested in your results.

Thanks,
Ted

 

[madscientist]

In my opinion there are too many contributing factors to consider in this study. Many of these factors get lumped into the "weather" category and are hard to filter out. I'll use wet roads as an example. It's not actually rain that helps our business, it's wet roads. Sure, rain makes the roads wet, but a summer thunderstorm at 1 am that ends at 1:30 am while most cars are parked in driveways or garages doesn't get cars dirty. This is especially true if the roads are dry by the time most people get out and about in the morning. A strong downpour for a whole day is not as beneficial as an intermittent drizzle that results in the car ahead of you spraying up a dirty mist for you to drive into.

Putting a sunny day with dry roads into the same category as a sunny day with wet roads (and a forecast for rain the following day) doesn't quite filter out all the noise.

Another example is temperature. 75 degrees and sunny is not the same as 16 degrees and sunny. 65 degrees in January is a good day for car washing, but 65 degrees in October is downright chilly!

I'm sure you guys can think of many other similar factors.

 

[Buzzie8]

Here is my reasoning for trying some type of system. I had a record breaking year in 2010 and just an OK year in 2011. I am pretty sure it is weather related but I think the gas price increase also had a good deal to do with my decline. Instead of just saying it was due to lousy weather (which i know was a huge factor here in the Northeast, entire winter below freezing, rain all spring, always have lousy summers, and only one snow fall in November and December) I would prefer to have some quantitative way to correlate the sales to the weather. This would make more sense than just saying "it was due to bad weather".

 

[bigleo48]

Buzzie,

I don't think its gonna give you the answers you think you're gonna get as there are too many variables to make that that call definitively.

Like I said in the past post, if your competitors are seeing the same swings, then it's just noise.

Big

 

[Diana]

We kept records for about 18 months. In our area, wind is/was the biggest weather factor, windy days people don't wash. We installed garage doors on our SS bays, this helped business! Even with doors, they don't wash when the wind is up over 30 mph. Our area is dry, there is usually dirt/sand in the wind.

 

[mjwalsh]

Weather with other factors

Another example is temperature. 75 degrees and sunny is not the same as 16 degrees and sunny. 65 degrees in January is a good day for car washing, but 65 degrees in October is downright chilly!

I'm sure you guys can think of many other similar factors.

I agree with madsci. I would add that those of us who control the ability to open & close overhead doors & allow people to wash with the doors shut on both ends --- tend to experience what I call transition factors. For example in the fall the customers are transitioning from warm weather so they are much more likely to complain that it is too cold washing not being totally enclosed & sheltered vs towards spring where they are more acclimated to the cold & the weather now feels "so-ooo warm".

If they are shivering while they are putting in quarters or futzing with one dollar bills in even the best bill acceptors --- that is a factor too. Of course that could be helped if the dollar bill is finally replaced with the dollar coin --- it is only 20 years overdue but --- better late than never!

Could it be that definitions of "austerity" work similar --- as in "compared to what"

mike walsh king koin of bismarck

 

[Kevin James]

Why rant and rave about the weather. There’s nothing you can do to change it. If it rains it rains, the winds blow. So why get all upset about it.

 

[Buzzie8]

Why rant and rave about the weather. There’s nothing you can do to change it. If it rains it rains, the winds blow. So why get all upset about it.

I don't think I was ranting and raving. When the #1 factor that effects your business is weather it would be nice to know whether your numbers are down or up because of it or because you are doing something wrong (or right for that matter!)

Do you think ski resorts have some way to correlate their businesses to the weather each season. You can bet your sweet *ss they do!

 

[mjwalsh]

Some finer points of mitigating the consequences of the weather

Why rant and rave about the weather. There’s nothing you can do to change it.

Up north here in North Dakota --- we tend to watch the weather extra close except during the summer & how we run the operation reflects that.

Weather can make us run things a bit different: For example we make darn sure our entrance doors can't be pulled down as soon as the the wind & temperature combination is such that we can do so.

Sure some of the customers who don't want to wear a jacket or for whatever other reason --- kick up a fuss a bit --- but it is better than running a deficit or even worse increasing a deficit that hurts the greater good. It reminds me of why those insisting on the dollar bill instead of the dollar coin should not be allowed to get their way!

I think Buzzie's topic is of value --- another issue is --- when it gets real sloppy --- we can focus on other things to do --- because even though the weather is nice --- it may not get that busy where we would tend to watch the operation closer & possibly with more manpower. That is until the streets get plowed properly.

mike walsh king koin of bismarck