We got a six bay self serve car wash that we bought from a bank about 9 months ago. It's been slow, and we just started making our mortgage payment....lol Anyways, we are looking at adding an In Bay Automatic to increase revenue. We get about 13000 cars per day driving by. Conservatively, how many cars can we capture from that amount? Does anyone have any idea? Any information will be helpful.
In Bay Automatic Forecasting.
- Thread starter cruth25
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captain cw
Member
I've found that traffic counts can be misleading. I have a site that has over 20,000 cars per day, but a lot of competition and low to mid income around it. It does so-so. My other site has about 11,000 cars per day, but limited competition and mid to upper income. It does awesome. Just be aware of all of the factors.
DiamondWash
Well-known member
what about converting a bay into a small express wash?
MEP001
Well-known member
There's a lot more to consider than traffic count. Are there other autos nearby? What about express exteriors, full serve etc.? Our auto business is dismal right now - it started dropping a few years ago when a large grocery chain installed a touchless auto, then an EE attached to a C-store opened a mile up the road. They give a basic wash for $3 with a fill-up. Luckily the auto has paid for itself several times over, but if we had put it in two years ago it would've been a huge mistake.
There is an automatic about 2 or 3 miles away east and west of us, and there is a conveyorized auto wash about 5 miles away. We are in a low income area, but about a mile away is much higher income. We get alot of people driving by going downtown to work. I read an article on here about multiplying your traffic count by .15 of 1%?
robert roman
Bob Roman
I have over twenty of experience preparing estimates and forecasts. This includes 10-years in the public sector as a strategic planner and almost 12-years in the carwash industry as a consultant. I can assure you that forecasting is more of an art than a science.
Accurately determining customer attraction rate and store turnover rate (sales volume) for a carwash site has always been an issue of debate and an area of concern for developers.
Experience has shown that an operator can expect to capture between 0.4% and 1.81% or more of the daily highway traffic passing by a site. This is a very broad forecast interval to consider and capture rate is known to vary considerably depending on category of wash, business model, geographic region and other site location factors.
For example, using annual average daily traffic count (AADT) of 25,000, the lower and upper bounds of capture rate would produce annual site yield of;
25,000 x 0.004 x 312 = 31,200
25,000 x 0.0181 x 312 = 141,180
Some people believe developers should base projections on an average rate. For example, AADT of 25,000 and average rate of 0.7% would produce annual site yield of;
25,000 x 0.007 x 312 = 54,600
This may seem like good advice but the capture rate approach is naive meaning that it is not based on cause and effect. Studies have shown that traffic count capture rate is unbiased but it is not a consistent estimator of carwash sales volumes. In other words, there is too much unexplained error in the estimate to content with or bet on.
There are a number of ways beside capture rate to estimate and forecast carwash volumes such as analogue-based procedures, discriminate analysis, analogue-based regression analysis, gravity models, spatial models as well as statistical procedures to merge individual estimates into an indicated volume to improve the degree of confidence.
I have an entire section on my website that provides an overview of customer attraction as well as other stuff like location assessment that you might find of interest in dealing with your problem.
I would provide it the web address, but I don’t believe I am allowed to.
However, if you know how to surf a little bit, I’m sure you will be able to track it down.
Accurately determining customer attraction rate and store turnover rate (sales volume) for a carwash site has always been an issue of debate and an area of concern for developers.
Experience has shown that an operator can expect to capture between 0.4% and 1.81% or more of the daily highway traffic passing by a site. This is a very broad forecast interval to consider and capture rate is known to vary considerably depending on category of wash, business model, geographic region and other site location factors.
For example, using annual average daily traffic count (AADT) of 25,000, the lower and upper bounds of capture rate would produce annual site yield of;
25,000 x 0.004 x 312 = 31,200
25,000 x 0.0181 x 312 = 141,180
Some people believe developers should base projections on an average rate. For example, AADT of 25,000 and average rate of 0.7% would produce annual site yield of;
25,000 x 0.007 x 312 = 54,600
This may seem like good advice but the capture rate approach is naive meaning that it is not based on cause and effect. Studies have shown that traffic count capture rate is unbiased but it is not a consistent estimator of carwash sales volumes. In other words, there is too much unexplained error in the estimate to content with or bet on.
There are a number of ways beside capture rate to estimate and forecast carwash volumes such as analogue-based procedures, discriminate analysis, analogue-based regression analysis, gravity models, spatial models as well as statistical procedures to merge individual estimates into an indicated volume to improve the degree of confidence.
I have an entire section on my website that provides an overview of customer attraction as well as other stuff like location assessment that you might find of interest in dealing with your problem.
I would provide it the web address, but I don’t believe I am allowed to.
However, if you know how to surf a little bit, I’m sure you will be able to track it down.
Waxman
Super Moderator
bighead
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Isn't www.carwashplan.com Robert's website to begin with?
When I did my pro Forma I did 3 scenarios:
.00075 capture for breakeven
.00150 capture for realistic
.00300 for best case
I wish I could capture .004 at my IBA. And if I could get .0181... well let's just say I'd be laying on the beach somewhere..
When I did my pro Forma I did 3 scenarios:
.00075 capture for breakeven
.00150 capture for realistic
.00300 for best case
I wish I could capture .004 at my IBA. And if I could get .0181... well let's just say I'd be laying on the beach somewhere..
robert roman
Bob Roman
Bighead,
Although a lot depends on market circumstances, you would be surprised by what can be accomplished with an IBA.
I have a client in the southeast with a new express wash using two in-bay express carwash systems. I suggested one express in-bay and one mini-tunnel, but being his first wash he wanted to go conservative while he was getting his feet wet. He hasn’t been opened very long and he is already working with the OEM to squeeze more hourly throughput from these units because he is almost out washing his current capacity. He is averaging well over $9.00 a car.
“what about converting a bay into a small express wash?”
DiamondWash,
Again, depending on market circumstances, this can be a great idea.
I have a friend in KS with a mini-tunnel, 55’ conveyor with 5-touch module as well as all the bells and whistles, in a 40’ long building that has hit a 32 car hour and the wash is averaging about $10.00 a car.
He is currently putting the finishing touches on a self-service rehab, just opened, where he converted an in-bay to an express in-bay with all the bells and whistles.
So, there are different ways to go.
You may also want to visit my website and click on the new-the-industry page, click business model. There is a section there on small-scale carwash.
Hope this helps.
Although a lot depends on market circumstances, you would be surprised by what can be accomplished with an IBA.
I have a client in the southeast with a new express wash using two in-bay express carwash systems. I suggested one express in-bay and one mini-tunnel, but being his first wash he wanted to go conservative while he was getting his feet wet. He hasn’t been opened very long and he is already working with the OEM to squeeze more hourly throughput from these units because he is almost out washing his current capacity. He is averaging well over $9.00 a car.
“what about converting a bay into a small express wash?”
DiamondWash,
Again, depending on market circumstances, this can be a great idea.
I have a friend in KS with a mini-tunnel, 55’ conveyor with 5-touch module as well as all the bells and whistles, in a 40’ long building that has hit a 32 car hour and the wash is averaging about $10.00 a car.
He is currently putting the finishing touches on a self-service rehab, just opened, where he converted an in-bay to an express in-bay with all the bells and whistles.
So, there are different ways to go.
You may also want to visit my website and click on the new-the-industry page, click business model. There is a section there on small-scale carwash.
Hope this helps.
What exactly is a small express wash? Sounds interesting. What are you guys thoughts on used equipment? I talked to my distributor today and he recommended the pronavigator. Has anyone ever heard of this machine?
I have seen this machine operate, its an inverted L. I don't know if it has any features that other manufactures don't have, I think they are built in kentucky. If there is a superwash close by you I think that is what they put in all of there washes. If you are unfamiliar with automatic equipment I would be more interested in a good distributor than the equipment. When it is broke down [and it will break because they all do] you need parts and service or tech help by phone.
Waxman
Super Moderator
bigleo48
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Cruth,
Why don't you post your address? This would allow us to see your location (with sat, street and birds eye views) and your competition. Since you already own the wash, I don't see it as a big risk for anybody, but you may get a better response from us vets.
A little more about street capture. My road has car count of about 5k. Now you would think that's not very good. But what the car count doesn't tell you is I am next to a Wal-Mart SuperStore, a Home Depot and other big box stores along with smaller retail, just off a major highway. So the important part here is being AT the destination, not along the way with the higher traffic count.
Whale of a Wash
5 Washes 36Bays 2Vectors
The capture rate depends on whether you are selling equip or own equipment.
If i could capture those figures I would have numbers to impress everyone, and would have sold the cash cow. I have a great wash on a street with 17K cars a day speed limit 40mph four lane with turning lane. No traffic signal. Avg speed 45-55mph. The police are writing tickets everyday. My capture rate is about 600 cars a month at $5. Not the figure the suits told me. Have struggled with the vectors mortgage for 5 years. You will honestly take in about what 3-4 self serve bays take in , so do please spend the IBA money wisely and accordingly. Leo is so right about being at the destination. I am in the middle on the way to a college- where everyone is 5 mins late. Used to be students had money to wash.
If i could capture those figures I would have numbers to impress everyone, and would have sold the cash cow. I have a great wash on a street with 17K cars a day speed limit 40mph four lane with turning lane. No traffic signal. Avg speed 45-55mph. The police are writing tickets everyday. My capture rate is about 600 cars a month at $5. Not the figure the suits told me. Have struggled with the vectors mortgage for 5 years. You will honestly take in about what 3-4 self serve bays take in , so do please spend the IBA money wisely and accordingly. Leo is so right about being at the destination. I am in the middle on the way to a college- where everyone is 5 mins late. Used to be students had money to wash.
tobaccofarmer
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The two most important factors in my opinion are (1) Sunshine (2) quality of wash. You can have 25000 cars per day but if the sun isn't shining then it doesnt matter, and you can have the sun shining and every car that passes you try it once but if the wash quality is bad then they wont be back. You can assume no matter what the car count that almost all of them are daily drivers who drive the same route day after day right? So I would say the cpd capture rate calculation is merely an easy way for dist/equip people to manipulate whatever number they want to make it look as good as they need to. I would consider average days of sunshine per year in your area more seriously than CPD. Never under estimate the weather, as it will make or break you, unless you are in Sourthern California? or anywhere else that it never rains. Also what are you going to do to ensure your automatic cleans better than anything else? Thats where you need to excel, and trust me its not easy, possible but not easy.
pmedasie
New member
It makes me sad that it took me 3 and 1/2 years to get to 30,000 cars!
Whale of a Wash
5 Washes 36Bays 2Vectors
Nice looking location, Any chance you could connect your driveway near the front over to the subway. I have a wash with a Taco Johns in front of the wash, and we get customers that go to both. Some cross marketing with subway could give you a boost also. Which bay were you planning on turning into an IBA.
