Capture Rate, Express Tunnel- No Competition

[Cbreezy]

Hello All!
Looking for current Express Tunnel owners and "real" numbers.

We are building a wash and wanting to get more accurate "capture rate" numbers to put on our Proforma for a NEW 130 Express Tunnel wash, conveyor belt, with no competitors and a VPD of 17,000 with a 5 mile radius population of 50,000

Our location sits next to major box tops like Wal-Mart, Home Depot, etc...

I see capture rates of anywhere between .7-1.5%
These numbers vary greatly. I know with an unlimited car wash customer base this helps. What are the numbers for owners that have no competition and where did you get your information from when deciding to build?

I've heard certain franchises, not going to mention, claiming they can see anywhere from 3-5% capture rate. Wondering if any of y'all are out there and your input. Any statistics, website or surveys done to support your numbers on no competition? Thank you!

 

[Axxlrod]

Couple things to suggest.

- Never trust the proformas given to you by the equipment suppliers. They are inflated.

- Run your pro forma at .5% - .7%. If the numbers don't work, then don't do the project.

- The traffic counts and pop numbers you posted seem too low to support a $4M - $5M express wash.

 

[wyatt]

Most tunnels in my area are goin up on streets with 40k+ traffic counts...

 

[jfmoran]

Traffic count and population are low. Like stated above, use .5-.7 for proforma and realize it takes at least 3 years for a site to "mature". I wouldn't want to develop a site with that traffic count and population for more than about $2.5-$3M, max. I would highly suggest hiring a consultant to answer all your questions. Having no competition is great, until someone sees "all the cars your washing" and decides to build another tunnel in that market.

 

[MC3033]

Even at 1.5% I would say that is a risky project for a build out. Unless you had a 5mile density of 250k I wouldn’t consider a ground up on a road under 30k

 

[washnshine]

As was previously stated - You also need to understand that once you build, you will have competitors spring up around you. These days, the first operator in an area rarely stands alone. You will be sharing the market. So once your site matures and even if you are on target with your projections, you will have to give up some of the pie. As long as you plan for that and can still make the numbers work - just be realistic.

 

[soapy]

Auto laundry News last survey shows a capture rate of 1.06 with average traffic count of 35,800 and average sale price of $9.96. The average cost to build a express in 2019 is 5 million. They also state that the express market has reached maturation and is not growing any longer. The key will be to keep what you have.

 

[soonermajic]

Auto laundry News last survey shows a capture rate of 1.06 with average traffic count of 35,800 and average sale price of $9.96. The average cost to build a express in 2019 is 5 million. They also state that the express market has reached maturation and is not growing any longer. The key will be to keep what you have.

I found this very interesting. 5 yrs ago, the Express Tunnel market had matured. Ha
Little did we all know...
I have never seen a survey suggest 1.06 capture rate. Also, groups out there Claiming they need 40 & 50k traffic counts always seemed kinda crazy. Now we see tunnels going into small towns with populations of 3,000 ----> 4,000.
Just amazing to see where things have gone.

 

[Axxlrod]

Wonder if OP ever built his tunnel and if so, how is it going?

 

[washnshine]

I found this very interesting. 5 yrs ago, the Express Tunnel market had matured. Ha
Little did we all know...
I have never seen a survey suggest 1.06 capture rate. Also, groups out there Claiming they need 40 & 50k traffic counts always seemed kinda crazy. Now we see tunnels going into small towns with populations of 3,000 ----> 4,000.
Just amazing to see where things have gone.

I would have thought dollar stores were saturated 5 years ago, but they aren’t stopping either!

 

[Greg Pack]

Wonder if OP ever built his tunnel and if so, how is it going?

During the three years he spent in the car wash business he built four express tunnels, then sold out to a PE group for a 16 million dollar profit.

After 31 Years in the business I'm still trying to figure out what fragrance tree sells best in my vending machine.

 

[soonermajic]

During the three years he spent in the car wash business he built four express tunnels, then sold out to a PE group for a 16 million dollar profit.

After 31 Years in the business I'm still trying to figure out what fragrance tree sells best in my vending machine.

He took a huge gameble, & it paid off. Kudos to him. Maybe he was playing with house money, & had just inherited a fortune. But he didn't "hide his talent".
He & his kids & grandkids are now set for life.

Now, anybody know what capture rates are nowadays?

 

[washnshine]

After 31 Years in the business I'm still trying to figure out what fragrance tree sells best in my vending machine.

And after you unlock the key to that mystery, you too will be on your way to 16M!

 

[Axxlrod]

He took a huge gameble, & it paid off. Kudos to him. Maybe he was playing with house money, & had just inherited a fortune. But he didn't "hide his talent".
He & his kids & grandkids are now set for life.

Now, anybody know what capture rates are nowadays?

Did I miss something?

 

[soonermajic]

Did I miss something?

Greg told what the OP had done. I expounded on it somewhat.

 

[Greg Pack]

Greg told what the OP had done. I expounded on it somewhat.

And I'm joking. No idea where OP is. I hope he's done well.

Also some self reflection on my poor life choices.

 

[soonermajic]

And I'm joking. No idea where OP is. I hope he's done well.

Also some self reflection on my poor life choices.

Was a totally believable story!

 

[Axxlrod]

Was a totally believable story!

I've seen it happen several times in this industry. That's why I asked.

 

[soonermajic]

I've seen it happen several times in this industry. That's why I asked.

Yeh, a friend of mine did it. Built 3sites for $8mil. Sold em for $19mil. They didn't even require a no compete claus! Ha
So he built another one for $5mil. Walked away with $6mil.!!!
Im sure others have more impressive stories, but that's the only one i personally know...

 

[Axxlrod]

Friend of mine built 5 express washes. Took about a decade. Sold the whole operation to PE. He can't/won't tell me the number, but I know it was over $50M.