Hello, So we are to the business and have a few questions... We are currently getting all of the information and numbers from the supplier. We have a traffic count of 21,840 and a population of 12K. the site analysis came back as favorable. They suggested a 100' tunnel and 20 vacs. The supplier came back in their projections of doing 170 per day. Does this sound like a reasonable number? We are waiting on a quote from another supplier so we can compare (but they are taking forever),and wanted to see what the forum thought as well. Any insight would be appreciated.
Cars per day
- Thread starter crkiser
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I.B. Washincars
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12K sounds like an awful small town for a tunnel. What is there for competition?
There is one other small tunnel that is about 15 years old, has never been updated, no free vacs and is quite ran down. And during peak times it is still busy. 
It is not in an ideal location and has a much lower traffic count.
It is not in an ideal location and has a much lower traffic count.washnshine
Well-known member
I’m not an expert on the express model
by any stretch of the imagination, but just going by washes near me that I see doing volume more than that, the 20 vacs seems excessive. I’m probably wrong and the other forum members will correct me, but I see 200 c.p.d. washes functioning well on 10-12 vacs. My info may well be be anecdotal but that is what I have seen.
by any stretch of the imagination, but just going by washes near me that I see doing volume more than that, the 20 vacs seems excessive. I’m probably wrong and the other forum members will correct me, but I see 200 c.p.d. washes functioning well on 10-12 vacs. My info may well be be anecdotal but that is what I have seen.
MEP001
Well-known member
Obviously most of that traffic count is people passing through. I have doubts that you'll draw a lot of customers from that.
Take that projection with a grain of salt. Or a fistful. They most likely don't care if you succeed or fail and are only interested in selling the build.
BenBranam
Member
That capture rate seems inline with other estimates. But what is the access to your location and what is the speed limit in front of your location? Is there a light right there? Are people speeding by at 55+ or going 30? The slower the better for the impulse buyer.
MEP001
Well-known member
What other estimates?
Waxman
Super Moderator
Where did you get the DTC #?
In Massachusetts, the Highway Department of the State has this data available.
My DTC was pretty good. I used .003 as a multiplier and have never hit the number.
Just FYI.....
Never rely on the salesmen / their company to do your research for you. This is a big mistake. You have to do your own due diligence.
In Massachusetts, the Highway Department of the State has this data available.
My DTC was pretty good. I used .003 as a multiplier and have never hit the number.
Just FYI.....
Never rely on the salesmen / their company to do your research for you. This is a big mistake. You have to do your own due diligence.
soonermajic
Well-known member
Seems a lil high, but in great conditions that could be on point. But ingress/ egress, Stop light, speed limit etc has to be w/in range.
No matter what, 20 vacs is double what you need! Pop of 12k , passers by of 21k sounds like a through highway...?
No matter what, 20 vacs is double what you need! Pop of 12k , passers by of 21k sounds like a through highway...?
Based on the information provided the projections seem obtainable.
I wouldn’t put more then 10 vacs and would consider as few as 8 with room for more if things go great.
For those car counts I’m not sure the investment into an express is worthwhile (I sure wouldn’t risk it)
I wouldn’t put more then 10 vacs and would consider as few as 8 with room for more if things go great.
For those car counts I’m not sure the investment into an express is worthwhile (I sure wouldn’t risk it)
BenBranam
Member
From the last study done by Auto Laundry News, those numbers are in line with the study.
But someone else said it, do your own research and see what kind of capture rate you might come up with. If the numbers line up, you are good. If not, figure out who is making a better guess and probably make sure you can survive on the smaller number.
Traffic count is reasonable, but population is low. Are you near any fast food or other retail? What's the speed of traffic? Are you on the going home side of the street? On a corner? Mid-block? How's the ingress/egress of the property? Is that 12K in a 1, 3 or 5 mile radius? 170 based strictly off traffic count is a reasonable capture rate, but that's just one of several factors to consider.
soapy
Senior Member
A rule of thumb I was given years ago by a express wash appraiser was that you needed 125 cars per day per millions of dollars invested to break even. Low side would be 100 cpd per million. At that rate will your project cost 1.7 million or less?
the speed limit is 35 with 4 lanes (and a middle turning lane), and a stop light is very close.
We thought 20 was a bit excessive as well. We are looking at 12 now.
Yes, we are right in the middle of a pretty much one road town. There is a Walmart, Mc Donalds, Taco Bell ect all very close. the speed limit is 35 with 2 lanes each direction and a center turning lane.
So in theory with a 100' tunnel you will be doing 100 cars per hour and the projection says only 170 washes per day? I will go with a way smaller tunnel and half of vacuums. The traffic count is not enough even for a mini tunnel in my opinion. You should consider max speed on road, you could have 50K cars but if speed is 60MPH you will not get too much business.
BenBranam
Member
So your capture rate could be a little higher than 170 per day with that demographic of an area... but will it support a big tunnel and will people use a big tunnel from that area? Normally we would be looking at the population density 2, 5, and 10 miles out. But rural areas are a little different. Even as a salesman of equipment it seems a little big with what someone was trying to sell you. Sounds like a 100' tunnel and 20 vacs would be for a much heavier volume place. You might be able to use a substantially smaller tunnel and hybrid equipment and get the numbers per hour through that you are looking for.
