Jimmy Buffett
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I expect that McCain will soundly beat either of them. If Hillary wins pray for the super delegates that turned on her.
Debate
- Thread starter Jimmy Buffett
- Start date
Ben's Car Wash
Conveyor & self service
As of today:
Obama 1,490.5 pleged, 252 superdelegates, 1,742.5 total, 282 need to win nomination
Clinton 1,339.5 pleged, 269.5 superdelegates, 1,609 total, 415.5 needed to win nomintation.
Obama will get nearly 1/3 or more... maybe 1/2 of IN. Obama will get nearly 80% of NC. Don't count him out yet. He still has plenty of cash.
Remaining 404 273.5 677.5
(2,024.5 delegates needed for victory)
A NYT op-ed by Rhodes Cook:
While Hillary Clinton probably can’t catch Barack Obama in the race for most pledged delegates at the Democratic presidential nominating convention, she does have a shot at overtaking him in the popular vote. Whoever triumphs in that symbolic total will have a persuasive argument to use with the wavering superdelegates who are likely to decide the race this summer.
Granted, Mrs. Clinton boasts that she has the lead already, but her count includes the votes in the unsanctioned primaries in Florida and Michigan. A fairer calculation would eliminate the ballots cast in those two states, as well as the votes from caucuses where no statewide tally of the actual vote was compiled. (Those states are Iowa, Maine, Nevada and Washington; Mr. Obama won three of them.) Territories that do not possess any Electoral College votes should be ruled out, too.
Obama 1,490.5 pleged, 252 superdelegates, 1,742.5 total, 282 need to win nomination
Clinton 1,339.5 pleged, 269.5 superdelegates, 1,609 total, 415.5 needed to win nomintation.
Obama will get nearly 1/3 or more... maybe 1/2 of IN. Obama will get nearly 80% of NC. Don't count him out yet. He still has plenty of cash.
Remaining 404 273.5 677.5
(2,024.5 delegates needed for victory)
A NYT op-ed by Rhodes Cook:
While Hillary Clinton probably can’t catch Barack Obama in the race for most pledged delegates at the Democratic presidential nominating convention, she does have a shot at overtaking him in the popular vote. Whoever triumphs in that symbolic total will have a persuasive argument to use with the wavering superdelegates who are likely to decide the race this summer.
Granted, Mrs. Clinton boasts that she has the lead already, but her count includes the votes in the unsanctioned primaries in Florida and Michigan. A fairer calculation would eliminate the ballots cast in those two states, as well as the votes from caucuses where no statewide tally of the actual vote was compiled. (Those states are Iowa, Maine, Nevada and Washington; Mr. Obama won three of them.) Territories that do not possess any Electoral College votes should be ruled out, too.
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If Hillary gets the nod over Obama even though he has more delegates the Democratic Party will take years to recover from it much less win in November.
It is all about the Clinton ego. If she cared about the party she would step aside and use that to unite the party. Instead her refusal to give in will have serious consequences for the Party as the Clintons are well aware of. The Clintons do not like to lose so look for them to pull out all the stops to gain the nomination whether it is good for the party or not. All the Republicans have to do is sit back and watch the fireworks.
It is all about the Clinton ego. If she cared about the party she would step aside and use that to unite the party. Instead her refusal to give in will have serious consequences for the Party as the Clintons are well aware of. The Clintons do not like to lose so look for them to pull out all the stops to gain the nomination whether it is good for the party or not. All the Republicans have to do is sit back and watch the fireworks.
Ben's Car Wash
Conveyor & self service
Indiana
Composite Pollster.com score:
Clinton 49.7
Obama 43.9
Insider Advantage. 5/4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Clinton 48 (47)
Obama 44 (40)
Zogby. 5/4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Clinton 42 (42)
Obama 44 (42)
Suffolk. 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Clinton 49
Obama 43
PPP (PDF). 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 3.4% (4/26-27 results)
Clinton 51 (50)
Obama 46 (42)
ARG. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Clinton 53 (53)
Obama 45 (44)
SurveyUSA. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/25-27 results)
Clinton 54 (52)
Obama 42 (43)
NORTH CAROLINA
Composite Pollster.com score:
Obama 49.9
Clinton 42.2
Insider Advantage. 5/4. Likely voters. MoE 3% (5/1 results)
Obama 48 (49)
Clinton 45 (44)
Zogby. 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Obama 48 (50)
Clinton 40 (34)
PPP (PDF). 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 3.4% (4/26-27 results)
Obama 53 (51)
Clinton 43 (39)
ARG. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Obama 50 (52)
Clinton 42 (41)
SurveyUSA. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/26-28 results)
Obama 50 (49)
Clinton 45 (44)
This won't be a three or five
Composite Pollster.com score:
Clinton 49.7
Obama 43.9
Insider Advantage. 5/4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Clinton 48 (47)
Obama 44 (40)
Zogby. 5/4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Clinton 42 (42)
Obama 44 (42)
Suffolk. 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Clinton 49
Obama 43
PPP (PDF). 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 3.4% (4/26-27 results)
Clinton 51 (50)
Obama 46 (42)
ARG. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Clinton 53 (53)
Obama 45 (44)
SurveyUSA. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/25-27 results)
Clinton 54 (52)
Obama 42 (43)
NORTH CAROLINA
Composite Pollster.com score:
Obama 49.9
Clinton 42.2
Insider Advantage. 5/4. Likely voters. MoE 3% (5/1 results)
Obama 48 (49)
Clinton 45 (44)
Zogby. 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Obama 48 (50)
Clinton 40 (34)
PPP (PDF). 5/3-4. Likely voters. MoE 3.4% (4/26-27 results)
Obama 53 (51)
Clinton 43 (39)
ARG. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/30-5/1 results)
Obama 50 (52)
Clinton 42 (41)
SurveyUSA. 5/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/26-28 results)
Obama 50 (49)
Clinton 45 (44)
This won't be a three or five
Ben's Car Wash
Conveyor & self service
Rush is telling Republican in IN. to break the law (again). Operation Chaos
{"Now, as I understand it they're going to have to monitors at the polls, and they're going to check to see if crossover voters, Republican crossover voters have changed from their past registration just this one time, and they're going to then tell the crossovers that they're being watched. Now, the bottom line with all this is, they can't stop anybody from voting however they wish. It's an open primary. They say it's some sort of a crime. I don't know if it's a felony, but it's some sort of a crime for Republican crossovers -- i.e., Operation Chaos operatives -- to go in and vote in the Democrat primary when it's open! The only way a voter could get in trouble here is if the voter turns himself in after voting. And even then, it's a long shot that anybody would be in trouble. So here are today's orders for Indiana Operation Chaos operatives. Flood these precincts. Vote for Mrs. Clinton as an act of defiance against these police state tactics as a form of protest. Indiana Democrat pooh-bahs do not get to intimidate us. They don't get to tell us how to vote and attempt to change the rules in the end of the game. I'm not in favor of these open primaries, but if they're open, then they're open. "}
What IN law say's
"IC 3-10-1-6
Eligible voters
Sec. 6. A voter may vote at a primary election:
(1) if the voter, at the last general election, voted for a majority of the regular nominees of the political party holding the primary election; or
(2) if the voter did not vote at the last general election, but intends to vote at the next general election for a majority of the regular nominees of the political party holding the primary election;
as long as the voter was registered as a voter at the last general election or has registered since then.
As added by P.L.5-1986, SEC.6. "
{"Now, as I understand it they're going to have to monitors at the polls, and they're going to check to see if crossover voters, Republican crossover voters have changed from their past registration just this one time, and they're going to then tell the crossovers that they're being watched. Now, the bottom line with all this is, they can't stop anybody from voting however they wish. It's an open primary. They say it's some sort of a crime. I don't know if it's a felony, but it's some sort of a crime for Republican crossovers -- i.e., Operation Chaos operatives -- to go in and vote in the Democrat primary when it's open! The only way a voter could get in trouble here is if the voter turns himself in after voting. And even then, it's a long shot that anybody would be in trouble. So here are today's orders for Indiana Operation Chaos operatives. Flood these precincts. Vote for Mrs. Clinton as an act of defiance against these police state tactics as a form of protest. Indiana Democrat pooh-bahs do not get to intimidate us. They don't get to tell us how to vote and attempt to change the rules in the end of the game. I'm not in favor of these open primaries, but if they're open, then they're open. "}
What IN law say's
"IC 3-10-1-6
Eligible voters
Sec. 6. A voter may vote at a primary election:
(1) if the voter, at the last general election, voted for a majority of the regular nominees of the political party holding the primary election; or
(2) if the voter did not vote at the last general election, but intends to vote at the next general election for a majority of the regular nominees of the political party holding the primary election;
as long as the voter was registered as a voter at the last general election or has registered since then.
As added by P.L.5-1986, SEC.6. "
Ben's Car Wash
Conveyor & self service
Dam they are DESPRITE TO GET HILLARY TO BE THE NOMINEE! Imagine diehard Republicans VOTING FOR HILLARY? And breaking the law too?
I know I'm breaking my personal rule by responding to Doug, but this is too sweet to pass on. So now it is illegal to vote in a primary because somehow if you don't want the person to win, that makes it not just wrong , but illegal. Doug, this is not the former communist state where you had to sign loyalty papers to vote. So long as you are registered, you can vote. Get over it. Don't let your hatred for Rush cloud your judgement. I think it would be just marvelous for Hillary to win. She and Bill have long memories. All the people who dumped them, seeing them being eviscerated by her - priceless. The country is probably strong enough to wothstand whoever wins.
pitzerwm
Active member
I was watching the talking heads last night and apparently, some of Obamas past "friends" have some more serious "views" that Rev. Wright. This year has certainly become interesting. I hope Mac is right that the country will survive whoever wins.
I have always felt much like Mac that our country is somewhat bullet proof based on the performance of some of the individuals that have sat in the oval office. However I am a little concerned when we see the character of and proposals from the two Democratic candidates in the mix today and the shape of our current Congress. How much more can we give away before we bring the whole thing down over our heads? Why do we worry more about those that cannot make it in our society than those that contribute to its growth and strength? Why do we feel that if we withdraw from global responsibilities those that would destroy us will be satisfied and no longer seek our destruction? There are many more questions that beg for answers but I probably said more than I should have already.
I hope Mac is right but I have may doubts.
I hope Mac is right but I have may doubts.
ted mcmeekin
Fast and Clean
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McCain has been told he does not have a chance many times in his life--he will win this one too.
Ted
Ted
After yesterday's vote anything more that Hillary does will damage the Dems chances for the White House and possibly the House and Senate. Her insistence to proceed will continue to split the Dems and may carry over to other elections in the Fall. It looks like she may also run out of money as well before she throws in the towel.
Her fight to include voting in Mich8igan and Florida will only heighten the problem she is causing the party. If she intends to try again in 2012 it would be in her best interest to work to unite the party instead of dividing it. With her and Obama's positions so close on most of the major issues it can only be ego that makes her continue.
Her fight to include voting in Mich8igan and Florida will only heighten the problem she is causing the party. If she intends to try again in 2012 it would be in her best interest to work to unite the party instead of dividing it. With her and Obama's positions so close on most of the major issues it can only be ego that makes her continue.
pitzerwm
Active member
phred113
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Black helicopter time: She will become the VP and he will have a Vince Foster or JFK event making her the Prez. Yes, it is far fetched, but only the Clinton's past record could even make this wacko suggestion seem plausible.
Ben's Car Wash
Conveyor & self service
She will have to concede after May 20th when Oregon goes to Obama if not sooner. Her point spread in Indiana was barely 2% with the crossover "operation Chaos" plot! Since February 5, the Obama campaign has netted 107 superdelegates, and the Clinton campaign only 21. Since the Pennsylvania primary, much of it during the challenging Rev. Wright period, Obama has netted 24 and the Clinton campaign 17.
The tide is moving the wrong way for Hillary! Obama raised $4 million yesterday..... Hillary's camp reported that see loaned 6.8M last month and an addition 5M this month (11.8M)!
Hillary WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED A VP canidate! That will likely go to Bill Richardson of NM first. However in the meantime, Obama has to spend mony campainging in KY an WV againt Clinton instead of saving that money or running adds against McCain.... which gives McCain a small advantage for now.
Today all 199 members of the House Republicans met with Bush (at 28%) to show "solidarity" and get there picture taken. This was not a smart move for thoose who don't want to have this brought back up in the fall.
But this is politics!
The tide is moving the wrong way for Hillary! Obama raised $4 million yesterday..... Hillary's camp reported that see loaned 6.8M last month and an addition 5M this month (11.8M)!
Hillary WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED A VP canidate! That will likely go to Bill Richardson of NM first. However in the meantime, Obama has to spend mony campainging in KY an WV againt Clinton instead of saving that money or running adds against McCain.... which gives McCain a small advantage for now.
Today all 199 members of the House Republicans met with Bush (at 28%) to show "solidarity" and get there picture taken. This was not a smart move for thoose who don't want to have this brought back up in the fall.
But this is politics!
