How cold is cold when not to open the wash?

[Earl Weiss]

Commonly referred to as Torpedo heaters. I try to get the ones that can use Diesel, not just Kerosene. Get them at the Big Box store. They only do so much.

 

[Earl Weiss]

It's cold and snowy.

 

[robert roman]

“You came up with a cost of $400+ a day, somehow. I have no idea how.”

Consider a wash with gross sales $500K. Total expenses are $363K which includes cost of goods, operating expenses, property taxes and debt service.

The window of opportunity for this particular wash is 4,320 hours.

$363K / 4,320 hours = $84 per hour

This is average cost of providing service.

So, it cost around $1,000 a day to stay open for 12 hours.

If the wash was monitored, data would give an indication of when motorists don’t wash in relation to temperature.

For example, at this wash, when it’s zero and below, history shows average of 30 cars a day whereas zero to 10 degrees, the average is 100 cars a day.

The average sales are $10.00. So, a 100 car day would cover cost of providing service.

So, zero would be the tipping point.

If the forecast was zero and above, history says there is a good chance of washing enough cars to justify the multitude of issues involved in opening and operating a wash in sub-freezing conditions.

If the forecast is – 5 F, history says mostly likely not enough people will visit.

Since every market is different, so will be the tipping point.

For example, in Atlanta, 1” of snow with a temperature of 32 F or below will paralyze the city.

So why open, close and do maintenance.

On the other hand, in extreme conditions in north, like a whole week forecast for -5, what would you do?

 

[Earl Weiss]

>>Consider a wash with gross sales $500K. Total expenses are $363K which includes cost of goods, operating expenses, property taxes and debt service.

The window of opportunity for this particular wash is 4,320 hours.

$363K / 4,320 hours = $84 per hour

This is average cost of providing service.<<<

AFAIAC it is absolutley not the average cost of providing service. We defiine terms differently, so we disagree. Property taxes and debt service are fixed, so they are not the cost of providing the service. I have to pay them if I open or not. Thye do not belong in the equation or decision as to whether an operator should open on a marginal day.


>>>So why open, close and do maintenance.<<<

Because on the real slow day the loader / greeter / cashier can also clean the floor, equipment and walls, replace some missing mitter cloth, clean hydrominder tanks etc. Why blow off a revenue stream producing gross margins of enough to pay, cost of goods, incremental operating costs, the days wages ++ ? That is the question.

I have been down this road before at an ICA show where the presenter stated electricity was a fixed cost (Tunnle seminar) I spoke up and disagreed. It varies greatly if I wash 50K cars or 150K cars. Similarly I disagree that all chemical costs should be used to figure cost per car. (Not the issue in this topic but a common one) There needs to be different factors for the basic Wash versus other packages due to the revenue differences.

 

[JeffM]

Mike,

As we are a full-serve operation, our staff are the ones who move vehicles through the wash. In this case it was a senior management person who followed every safety procedure we had, including the emergency/"run away vehicle" one and was able to avoid any additional damages. Spare pannels are definately needed to have on hand and the door was repaired within a few hours.

As for the cost of repair; we incur the entire bill.

 

[Robert2181]

I don't think can or will be a standard or rule of the thumb formula (one size fits all). At best it can and will only be a wild a$$ quest. Or another network pole (+ or - 50 %).

There is so many variables that no way it can be more than a best, educated, experience,average and best case (average) opinion. And I hope it helps, but we all must keep in mind all of our own different situations.

 

[Earl Weiss]

I don't think can or will be a standard or rule of the thumb formula (one size fits all). At best it can and will only be a wild a$$ quest. Or another network pole (+ or - 50 %).

There is so many variables that no way it can be more than a best, educated, experience,average and best case (average) opinion. And I hope it helps, but we all must keep in mind all of our own different situations.

Very true. My locations which are at most half hour travel apart by car varied by as much as 200% - High Temp was about -4F. On super nice days the lowest volume location can be the highest volume location.

 

[robert roman]

$363K / 4,320 hours = $84 per hour

This “….is absolutely not the average cost of providing service.”

It absolutely is because $363K is total cost.

For example, if you don’t pay the mortgage, you have no wash to provide service.

Total cost / total hours = average cost per hour

And, yes, every situation is different but the logic is the same.

For example, low volume full-serve, $554K / 3,536 = $156 per hour

“Why blow off a revenue stream producing gross margins of enough to pay, cost of goods, incremental operating costs, the days wages ++ ?”

I never suggested you should.

However, if you have a very good idea that less than 30 cars will show up when its -5 degrees all day, why not do the maintenance.

Otherwise, staff works like jackasses back and forth between customers and maintenance perhaps inconveniencing customers and not getting maintenance done quite right as well.

 

[Earl Weiss]

$363K / 4,320 hours = $84 per hour

This “….is absolutely not the average cost of providing service.”

It absolutely is because $363K is total cost.

For example, if you don’t pay the mortgage, you have no wash to provide service.

Total cost / total hours = average cost per hour

.

First and foremost I understand and appreciate your perspective. I just tink it's wrong.

Second, some poster a while back referred to the same posters engaging in ****ing contests. I think it is more aquestion of offering different perspectives so readers can consider different ideas.

This “….is absolutely not the average cost of providing service.”

>>>It absolutely is because $363K is total cost.<<<

Yes it is the "Total Cost" is is not the cost of providing the service. As someone said, before an intelligent debate can take place people must agree on how terms are defined.

>>For example, if you don’t pay the mortgage, you have no wash to provide service.

Total cost / total hours = average cost per hour<<<

Yes, it's the average cost per hour, not the cost of providing service per hour. If you never provide any service you still have to pay fixed costs like Mortgage, Taxes and Insurance. Also a baseline for Utility costs. These are fixed and unrelated to incremental service production on marginal days which is what this discussion is about.

FWIW I Have had to close on days warmer than last Mon and Tues because once I can't keep cloth from icing up the party is over. The wind must have been less of a factor. Got one place open Mon with a high of -12, and 4 open Tues with a high of -4. Suffice it to say that we were busier than expected. Some Operators did not open Tues. The ones I spoke to that did were glad.

So, it's hard to predict solely based on Temperature expectations. How dirty are the Cars? Is it Sunny so it eems warmer or overcast looking like precipitation any minute.

And, yes, every situation is different but the logic is the same.

 

[Earl Weiss]

$363K /

However, if you have a very good idea that less than 30 cars will show up when its -5 degrees all day, why not do the maintenance.

O.

I have had lots of "good Ideas" that turned out. Wrong. Thought it was good idea to close at 11:00 when it rained steady till then this fall. Sun came out at 1:00 and was able to open one place. Was able to wash a decent amount.

A couple of days ago it was snowing lightly but steady. Forecast was for this to continue. Called the places at 1:00 and they said they had only washed a few cars so I told them to close. Got to the 4th and was about to close them as they washed a car, then another and and another while it snowed. Checked the numbers and they had done 30 the previous hour. Stayed open.

So, in hindsight the plan worked to perfection. Managers were instructed to try and open but not fight it with a high of 12 below. One stayed open and it was well worth it. The next day the plan was the same and again it worked. Predictions are great. Wethermen and economists do it all the time. Thye are even better at explaining why they were wrong than at making predictions.

Playing it by ear is better.

 

[rph9168]

To me if you are going to err I would err on the side of being open for business. The last thing you want in the minds of your customers is that you may or may not be open when they want to wash their vehicle.

 

[Earl Weiss]

I never, ever "predict" whether we should open. Except for scheduled repairs requiring shutdown we open every morning. If it's slow the attendant does routine cleanup and fixup. The door is open and cars can be washed if they show up. I am often surprised by the numbers that do. After a few hours of steady precip I check the forecast, weather radar and volume numbers to decide if we should close.

 

[TEEBOX]

I never, ever "predict" whether we should open. Except for scheduled repairs requiring shutdown we open every morning. If it's slow the attendant does routine cleanup and fixup. The door is open and cars can be washed if they show up. I am often surprised by the numbers that do. After a few hours of steady precip I check the forecast, weather radar and volume numbers to decide if we should close.

So last week I decided to close my tunnel Monday and Tuesday when the wind chill was -35 to -50 below 0. I checked in on both days to do some maintenance but more to make sure the tunnel was adequately heated. On both days the wash was fine.

I pull up Wednesday to find water gushing from my equipment room. The copper pipes busted at multiple locations that were fixed to the concrete wall. Apparently the wall got most of the cold wind the last couple of days. It looked like a vertical ice rink. I had the copper lines removed and installed plex lines instead. However, all 3 of my tankless water heaters were damaged as well. Had to by pass hot water lines to all my chemicals to run cold water in order to open. Plumbers not cheap!

My Wyndstar Door at my exit could not operate because of condensation to mother board and motor. The tech said that this door was shot. Door was in the down position which my bottom panel froze to the floor. It ripped the panel.

Still working with insurance company for the loss that's going at a snails pace. Thankfully, I have been able to operate but that may change with which direction the wind blows because of being spoiled with my Wynd Door.

A total nightmare!

 

[Earl Weiss]

FYI , due to similar issues in times gone buy, whether extreme cold or a failed heater Tunnel closing procedures for forcast of 20 degrees or less includes shutting water off at the main incoming line and opening valves at the far end. Even if you get a freeze at some low point at least there is no mess when you come in. Also may save some $ if you have a drip or two.

Similalry main valves at Air compressors are closed (As opposed to turning them off)

 

[dlc95]

I've been closed more than open. I took over operations on Dec 18th. I've worked at two canopied washes since 1996, so I figured digging the pit wouldn't be an issue. The weekend I took over, we had an ice storm. The previous owner didn't dig the pit, thus water around the take up forks, drum, etc gets trapped and freezes. No hot water, and flimsy wind curtains = frozen cloth. When we do open, I put the signs out and close the doors. Looking forward to spring. I'm going to get a water heater, and consider moving the equipment back so I can put the conveyor in the building. I'd like to be able to operate in any condition. My former employer was open on those cold days, with no problems.